The Brief – The future of sanctions on Russia


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Talks of a Ukraine ceasefire have intensified, largely prompted by US President-elect Donald Trump’s determination “to stop the madness.” We can bet that when an agreement is negotiated, Russia will ask for all sanctions to be lifted, but how will the West – and the EU – react?

Russian President Vladimir Putin apparently wants to freeze the current frontlines, and his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, seems to accept that while raising the idea of foreign troops to be deployed in his country. He hopes to recover the occupied territories at a later stage via diplomacy.

French President Emmanuel Macron and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk are ready to pitch a European peacekeeping mission in Ukraine. But so far, nobody has publicly mentioned the sanctions, which will undoubtedly be an important part of the package.

The US administration under Joe Biden was determined that Russia “feels the pain” for having invaded Ukraine. The measures Washington adopted included sweeping financial sanctions and export controls that immediately impacted Russia’s economy, cut off Russia’s access to vital technological inputs, atrophied its industrial base, and undercut Moscow’s strategic ambitions to exert influence on the world stage.

Similarly, the EU imposed massive and unprecedented sanctions aimed at imposing severe consequences on Russia for its actions and to effectively thwart Moscow’s ability to continue its aggression. They come on top of the measures already imposed on Russia since 2014 following the annexation of Crimea and the lack of implementation of the Minsk agreements.

The EU economic sanctions target Russia’s financial, trade, energy, transport, technology and defence sectors, as well as services provided to the country or Russian nationals. They also target Belarus, due to its complicity with Russia, and Iran, in response to the manufacturing and provision of drones.

Agreeing the successive sanctions packages (15 so far) was undoubtedly a success of EU diplomacy, which each time secured the support of the 27 member states – despite many suffering consequences from the backfire of the restrictive measures and the Russian counter-sanctions.

Russia considers the Western sanctions illegal. Moscow has also not shied away from bragging that these sanctions have failed to harm its economy and that its economic indicators should be envied by Western countries – although it is arguable whether these indicators can be trusted.

The priority Russia will attach to lifting the sanctions, in the likely hypothesis of the opening of ceasefire negotiations, will be revealing. At the negotiating table, however, the EU should have earned itself a seat precisely because of the importance of the restrictive measures it has put in place.

The more difficult part of our prognosis is Trump’s approach to the sanctions dossier. On 5 September, he made comments as if he was to lift all the sanctions “as quickly as possible.” While the US Constitution allows the president to lift all sanctions imposed using executive power, congressional approval is required to lift other sanctions. 

This unpredictability means that the EU must first focus on discussing a common approach to sanctions, which should be less radical than wholesale sanctions removal. Lifting all sanctions in one go makes no sense – some have been decided even before the 24 February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Lifting the sanctions completely is only possible when international order will be restored. A ceasefire is not enough.

Engaging with a future Trump administration remains elusive at the moment. However, one argument Trump would surely understand is that if Europe starts buying Russian gas again, this will hardly be in the interest of the US exporters of LNG. Another is that stripping Russia of EU sanctions gives Putin more leverage to resume his lunatic plan to restore the Soviet Union.

If Trump can be convinced, this could be the first big achievement – or defeat – of Kaja Kallas, the EU’s new foreign affairs chief. She probably heard that Italian Energy Minister Gilberto Pichetto Fratin said on Friday (13 December) that his country does not rule out resuming natural gas imports from Russia if – and when – the war with Ukraine is over.

It took many thousands of hours and sleepless nights for EU diplomats to agree on the sanctions. Would it take minutes, if not seconds, to undo their construction?


Roundup

Space – The European Commission and the EU Space Agency (ESA) signed on Monday (16 December) a 12-year concession contract worth €10.6 billion to build the IRIS2, the Europeans’ constellation for military and commercial communications.

Defence – Hungary’s year-long blockage of Ukraine support has prompted EU member states and top officials to renew their interest in convincing Budapest to opt out.

Foreign policy – As EU foreign ministers meet in Brussels on Monday (16 December) for the first time under new leadership, talks on future relations with Syria are set to be a balancing act.

Around Europe 

Germany – The German Bundestag is expected to pave the way for early elections by holding a confidence vote on Monday (16 December), a rare event in Germany’s political history that looks all but certain to usher in the end of Chancellor Olaf Scholz‘s tenure.

Western Balkans – The EU should come up with a “clear agenda for gradual integration” and increase diplomatic contacts with the regions, according to a joint letter by seven EU member states, seen by Euractiv.

Turkey – Moscow and Ankara both have something to gain from maintaining good relations, experts say, but recent power plays on both sides and Russia’s dwindling influence in the Middle East and the Caucasus show that ties are hanging by a thin thread.

Poland – Two of the four parties in Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s ruling coalition have agreed on a joint candidate for next year’s presidential election, while the others have put forward their own.

Ukraine – Ukraine’s defence manufacturers are pressing the country’s government to allow weapons exports, which they say could generate up to $15 billion (€14.3 billion) annually and boost production capacity.

Greece – With 159 votes out of the 300-member parliament, Greece’s ruling New Democracy party (EPP) passed the 2025 budget, while a large majority voted in favour of defence spending.


Look out for

17 December 

  • The 2024 Sakharov Prize ceremony takes place in Strasbourg, France.
  • The third Accession Conference with Albania takes place in Brussels, Belgium.
  • The European Parliament Plenary session takes place in Strasbourg, France.
  • The Environment Council takes place in Brussels, Belgium.
  • The General Affairs Council takes place in Brussels, Belgium.

[Edited by Martina Monti]



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