Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran
| Photo Credit:
PIB via PTI photo
The panel, Standing Committee on Finance, tabled its report on Tuesday.
According to the report, in his oral evidence on March 02, Nageswaran said: “Japan‘s economy is estimated to be at $4.4 trillion by the end of December 2025. Hence, we will have a gap of at least $500 dollar compared to Japan. Therefore, becoming the fourth largest economy in 2026- 2027 is not going to be easy. We will still be the fifth largest economy in 2026-2027.”
However, in 2027-2028, “we may have a chance to become the fourth largest, as much will depend on the Yen exchange rate as to how we are able to overtake Japan,” he said.
According to Nageswaran, due to base year revision (from 2011-12 to 2022-23), India‘s nominal GDP is now lower by approximately ₹12 lakh crore as of 2025-2026. “We initially expected ₹357.1 lakh crore as of March 2026. The new revisions may leave us with ₹345.4 lakh crore. This, divided by the average exchange rate for 2025-2026, places us at $3.9 trillion. We were at $3.9 trillion by March 2025, but due to the revision and the rupee’s exchange rate depreciation, we are still at $3.9 trillion,” he said, adding that last year got revised downwards to $3.75 trillion. Therefore, “we will be a $3.9 trillion economy as of March 2026,” he said.
On the issue of India overtaking Germany and becoming the third largest economy, he put up a guarded view. “Given the current trends of India’s real GDP growth, which we expect to be at least 7 per cent and possibly 10 to 11 per cent in nominal terms, if capital flows recover and India’s macroeconomic stability is well recognised by investors, both direct and portfolio, it is plausible that by the end of the decade, we will be positioned to become the third largest economy in dollar terms,” he said.
Published on March 17, 2026