Early projections put Merz‘s centre-right bloc, which also includes the Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU), at 29%, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) at 20 % and the Social Democrats (SPD) at 16%. The Greens won about 13%, the Left 9% and the liberal Free Democrats (FDP) 5%, according to the projections.
Barring a substantial shift in the results, the process of crafting a coalition promises to be fraught, with the early returns suggesting Merz will need at least two partners to build a majority in parliament, most likely with the SPD and either the Greens or the FDP.
If confirmed, the results would be worst in the SPD’s more than 100-year history, while also marking the first time since World War Two that the Christians Democrats and SPD did not take the first two places in a national election.
The preliminary result signaled a substantial shift to the right in Germany’s electorate since 2021, with the centre-right bloc and AfD recording a collective 48.5%, a massive jump from 34.5%. Given that Merz has ruled out forming a coalition with the AfD, however, the prospect of a coalition between the two is slim.
It was unclear whether the FDP and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a leftist party, would make it past the electoral threshold of 5%, which is required to gain parliamentary representation.
The projected centre-right win marks dramatic personal victory for Merz, who had all but abandoned his aspirations of becoming chancellor more than 20 years ago after his then-rival, Angela Merkel, outmanoeuvered him for the party leadership.
Much to Merkel’s chagrin, Merz returned to the head of the party in 2022 after two unsuccessful bids for the party leadership in 2018 and 2021.
The formation of a Grand Coalition would likely mark the end of Scholz’s political career, after he led the party to its worst national election result since 1887. Scholz has led an unpopular three-party coalition since 2021. It broke down in November after months of infighting, prompting snap elections.
[MK, OM]
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