Votes on the first two no-confidence motions are expected Wednesday.
Like Barnier, the centrist Bayrou is attempting to pass a slimmed-down budget aimed at cutting France’s massive deficit, although the current premier’s plans are less aggressive than those of his conservative predecessor.
But while Barnier had targeted the far-right National Rally as a potential partner for his minority government, Bayrou has been courting the center-left Socialist Party. Though the party has voiced its displeasure with the budget, it said in a statement on X that it would not vote for the no-confidence motion linked to Bayrou’s spending plans because “France needs a budget.”
However, the Socialists said they plan to put forward their own proposal to censure the government over what they believe is Bayrou’s refusal to uphold “republican values” — a shot at the prime minister over controversial comments he made on immigration last week.
That measure could still topple the government if enough lawmakers support it, but that depends on what the National Rally decides to do. The party has not yet announced its plans.
Though Le Pen and her troops are unlikely to vote for a no-confidence motion that criticizes Bayrou’s tough language on immigration, it’s not out of the question. The National Rally ended up voting for a measure criticizing the party as a means to take down Barnier’s government in December.
Should the National Rally vote for the separate motion of no confidence linked to the budget, Bayrou would need the entire Socialist Party to fall in line to keep his job — which is not a given. Last month, when Bayrou faced his first no-confidence motion, eight Socialist MPs broke ranks and voted to bring him down.
Anthony Lattier, Sarah Paillou and Victor Goury-Laffont contributed to this report.
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