Rarely has Bosnia and Herzegovina’s unity appeared so fragile, nearly 30 years after the signing of the 1995 Dayton Peace Agreement. Dodik, president of Republika Srpska (RS), the Serb entity in the deeply divided country, was ordered to serve one year in prison and banned from public office for six years by a Sarajevo court for defying the decisions of the High Representative, the international official responsible for overseeing the country’s post-war peace agreement.
“They say I am guilty. There is no reason to worry. I have learned to deal with tougher situations. What matters is that you are here,” Dodik told his supporters, who had gathered outside the National Assembly building in Banja Luka, the largest city in Republika Srpska. He had refused to travel to Sarajevo for the verdict, having previously stated that he would reject the court’s ruling “whatever it may be”.
Dobik can lodge an appeal against the verdict, although it remains unclear if he will.
Republika Srpska defiance
In the summer of 2023, Republika Srpska’s National Assembly passed laws refusing to recognise the High Representative’s decisions, barring their publication in the Official Gazette, and preventing their enforcement within the entity. In response, the High Representative introduced amendments to Bosnia and Herzegovina’s criminal code, making non-compliance with his rulings a criminal offence.
Ahead of the verdict, thousands of people gathered in Banja Luka, waving banners in support of Republika Srpska and its president: “Today Dodik, tomorrow all of us”, “Conviction of the president, attack on Republika Srpska”, and “Srpska is our pride, the president is our protector”.
On Tuesday, Republika Srpska’s National Assembly launched a two-day emergency session in which Serb representatives were instructed to block decision-making in Bosnia and Herzegovina state institutions. Lawmakers are also expected to vote today on resolutions rejecting the verdict and refusing to recognise the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina as the country’s highest judicial authority.
Rising regional tensions
A long-time ally of the Kremlin, Dodik has ruled Republika Srpska unchallenged since the mid-2000s and has regularly threatened to push for the Serb entity’s secession. His hardline stance has always been backed by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who recently denounced what he called “political attacks” against the RS leader.
“We need stability in the Balkans. This is precisely what President Dodik has ensured over the years: a stable and prosperous Republika Srpska,” Orbán declared on X just over a week ago. According to Bosnian media reports, members of Hungary’s special police forces have arrived in the Serb entity in recent days.
Meanwhile, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić has convened a National Security Council meeting in response to the verdict and is expected to travel to Banja Luka later today.
Vučić, who is facing growing protests in Serbia, appears keen to seize the moment and use pan-Serb ethnic solidarity as a political lifeline to deflect from intense domestic pressure. A major anti-corruption demonstration is planned for Saturday in Niš, while a general strike has been called for next week.
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