The worst part about being a shoo-in is that there is little to win and a lot to lose.
Ask Friedrich Merz.
Germany’s election frontrunner is realising these days that being treated as chancellor-in-waiting comes with a side of extra scrutiny at the slightest weakness.
It seems that finishing-line jitters have befallen the favourite some 40 days before the vote.
Nothing that momentous has happened, but as the campaign starts picking up, the polling average of Merz’s Christian Democrats (CDU) is now tilting downwards.
In a YouGov poll last week, the party dipped below 30% for the first time since last June.
It’s not the end of the world for Merz. But it’s clear that he’s losing momentum.
A candidate should be worried when behind-the-scenes grumbling from within their own camp starts bubbling to the surface in the form of anonymous quotes citing “doubts” about strategy.
Or when backbenchers publicly acknowledge that the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is “currently the only party with momentum in the polls” – as outgoing CDU lawmaker Thomas Heilmann did on Thursday at a lobby group event.
It’s more of a problem for Merz, 69, who was never an inspiring candidate. His party had already discarded him in the early Merkel years before he resurfaced in 2018 – with a bruised ego – to take advantage of Merkel’s weakness and the vacuum that was left following her retirement.
He was someone who old-guard CDU officials backed because he’s a throwback to the halcyon days of the Kohl-era – a time when men could still get away with saying, “I don’t mind gays as long as they don’t hit on me” (Merz on Berlin’s then-mayor, who is gay).
Merz’s biggest advantage might be that he looks strong and stable next to the Smurflike Olaf Scholz. The safest, perhaps the only, option.
But is he someone who induces Merz-mania? No – not among his party’s Merkel wing, not among the public. Even less so now that he has switched to a Starmer-esque autopilot campaign, steering clear of any controversial stances to bring his victory over the line.
The attention vacuum has been filled by the AfD.
Next to Merz, their candidate Alice Weidel looks like an astronaut next to a caveman: a lesbian partnered with an ethnically Sri Lankan woman who chats with tech billionaires via X Spaces (however ridiculous her conversation with Elon Musk turned out).
Merz’s most memorable intervention so far was possibly his outrage when Scholz called him “bullshitting Fritze”.
Perhaps it struck a chord because Fritz is not just a nickname for Friedrich but also for a stereotypical German person – and Merz’s stiff public demeanour very much makes him a ‘Fritz’. He has been tortured by the nickname throughout his career, most famously in the pages of Titanic, a satirical magazine.
That said, though Elon Musk might believe otherwise, the AfD’s antics are not going to sink Merz and carry the far right to victory.
But many in the CDU were banking on a strong result to help them push through their policies in post-election coalition negotiations with the Social Democrats and/or Greens.
The direction of travel now looks different, with the AfD creeping over the 20% line and even the Greens showing signs of life.
Merz might be down, but he’s not out. If there’s one thing he’s proved time and again in his long political career, it’s this: Fritz never gives up.
Roundup
Defence – Less than a day after the ceasefire deal negotiated between Israel and the terrorist group Hamas, the EU is lobbying for a long-lasting solution, quickly and access to Gaza for UN aid.
Tech – Member states have backed current European Data Protection Supervisor (EDPS) Wojciech Wiewiórowski for a second term, setting up a clash with the European Parliament, which backed another candidate.
Health – The European Parliament may have given the nod to the new health committee’s (SANT) mandate at the end of 2024, but other committees are still fighting to get their grip on key files.
Agrifood – The agricultural issue once again exposed sharp divisions within political groups in the European Parliament on Thursday, as EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič faced his first grilling over the EU-Mercosur trade deal since its signing in December.
Across Europe
Spain – Former Catalan president Carles Puigdemont warned Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez on Friday that his government could face collapse if he fails to deliver on promises made to Catalan separatist forces.
Austria – The European Commission has decided not to formally reprimand Austria for breaching the EU’s budget rules, in a major victory for Herbert Kickl’s Freedom Party (FPÖ), which is poised to lead Vienna’s first far-right government since World War II.
Serbia – Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić is facing a criminal complaint for inciting violence, filed by a civil society organisation after a driver rammed a student protest in Belgrade, injuring one woman.
UK – Rats fleeing hell face better odds than the EU ‘youth mobility‘ motion submitted to the British parliament this week, yet the proposal is not far from what may eventually become UK government policy.
Jonathan Packroff contributed reporting.
[MK]
!function(f,b,e,v,n,t,s)
{if(f.fbq)return;n=f.fbq=function(){n.callMethod?
n.callMethod.apply(n,arguments):n.queue.push(arguments)};
if(!f._fbq)f._fbq=n;n.push=n;n.loaded=!0;n.version='2.0';
n.queue=[];t=b.createElement(e);t.async=!0;
t.src=v;s=b.getElementsByTagName(e)[0];
s.parentNode.insertBefore(t,s)}(window, document,'script',
'https://connect.facebook.net/en_US/fbevents.js');
fbq('init', '307743630704587');
fbq('track', 'PageView');