As Opposition Leader Peter Dutton prepares to announce the Coalition’s defence spending policy, the experts warn the Australian military is becoming dangerously dependent on the United States and should start hedging its bets to prepare for a more self-interested and less reliable ally under President Donald Trump.
Military experts are concerned that Australia’s move to acquire Virginia-class submarines is distorting the defence budget.Credit: AP
The report by the Strategic Analysis Australia think tank finds that despite the first nuclear-powered submarine not expected to arrive in Australia until 2032, AUKUS is already significantly distorting the defence budget.
In particular, the authors find the Royal Australian Air Force is in the “dog house” despite being arguably the best performing and most potent branch of the defence force.
Over the next four years, the nuclear-powered submarine program is projected to cost $17.3 billion, outstripping the RAAF’s capital budget of $12.7 billion, which excludes staff and sustainment costs.
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“The discrepancy is made even more stark when we consider that Defence hasn’t even started to spend on any actual submarines, while air projects are in the middle of delivering MC-55 electronic warfare aircraft, MQ-4 Triton uncrewed aerial vehicles, long-range strike missiles, guided bombs, air-to-air missiles, and so on,” leading defence economist Marcus Hellyer writes in the report.
“It seems reasonable then to describe the [nuclear-powered submarine] enterprise as the ADF’s fourth service, at least in terms of its acquisition spending … It’s hard to grasp how unusual this situation is.”
Arguing that “submarines clearly exercise a strange hold over our collective imaginations”, Hellyer finds that the total cost of the nuclear-powered submarine program – including personnel and sustainment – could eventually rival that of the three branches of the military: the navy, air force and army.